A very large experiment

Pandemic`s lessons for on line university education

Introduction: Signs of disruption in the higher education market

Beyond the original possibilities created by the spread of personal computers and Internet connectivity in the last decade of the 20th century, the current combination and convergence of digital technologies such as mobile devices, 5G, sensors, AI, blockchain and the Internet of Things has spearheaded innovations that are having powerful impacts across industries other than the ICT industry itself, leading to the notion of a new industrial revolution embodied in the digitalization of the whole economy and the prospective digital transformation of all industries.

Digital technology is a clear case of a general purpose technology, one that can be applied in all sectors. A key driving force behind recent economic changes worldwide has been the exponential growth in the volume and speed of information generated by the expansion of information and communications technologies, as well as the unprecedented proliferation of connected devices, many of them smart or able to interact among themselves or with human beings. Indeed, given that digital technologies substantially lower the cost of information generation, processing, storage and transmission, their diffusion throughout the economy reduces friction, intermediation, namely, the uncertainty and transaction costs associated with physical economic interactions.

Universities are not likely to be spared the impact of these developments. The advent of advanced digital technologies has created for the first time certain conditions that seem to be able to put an end to higher education’s immunity to technological change.¹ Among such conditions:

1.     Radical shifts in the labor market, with the emergence of an almost unlimited demand for advanced digital skills, as well as a growing focus on skills rather than credentials on the employer’s side.

2.     The irruption in the market for advanced skills of non-conventional suppliers, such as leading technology corporations, on line course aggregators (such as Coursera and EdX) and coding bootcamps, as well as international universities, offering advanced skills with lower costs and higher effectiveness.

3.     A changing business environment, where regions and cities are working hard to create innovative industries and highly developed entrepreneurial ecosystems in which the traditional organization of the firm, the practice of  R&D, innovation and many other business functions are being reinvented.

4.     Unprecedented opportunities for radically new ways of imparting education, with i) a growing accessibility and feasibility of on line, remote education, at the post-secondary level and b) the emergence of artificial intelligence.

This is quite a terrain to cover. One of my previous notes in EdTech Horizons dealt with the need for Latin American universities to embrace entrepreneurship, which represents a partial response to point 3. My previous writing on bootcamps has addressed, partially, point 2 on new providers of advanced skills. I would like to come back in future editions of EdTech Horizons to both points for a deeper treatment, as well as to the importance of the changing labor markets for universities (point 1). Same for 4.ii, the potential of AI.

In this note, however, I will focus on point 4.i, the opportunity brought about by remote learning in the case of universities. The advantage of starting with this topic is that a worldwide dress rehearsal took place recently, by necessity, not by choice, as a consequence of the lock down of higher education institutions during the pandemic. There is less room for speculation now than before COVID-19 about what happens when higher education goes on line.

For decades, on line education had been widely believed to be the critical technological development that was creating the opportunity to undertake innovative paths for universities old and new. Such promise failed to materialize for more than half a century, except, with limitations, for some niche institutions devoted to distance education. Then, by the early decades of this century, an unprecedented boost in the potential of remote learning at the post-secondary level became feasible as a consequence of the saturation of high-capacity digital devices among the population and the expansion of broadband connectivity. Consequently, many of the opportunities for innovation in higher education started to revolve around new ways to get organized and take advantage of remote learning.

Digital technology and remote learning as an avenue for innovation in higher education

A recent estimate for the US market has predicted that post-secondary institutions lacking digital learning offers and online accredited programs will lose from now on at least 5 percent of their student enrollments per year². Digital technology in higher education, seen in this light, constitutes a path to inclusion, reaching out to non-traditional students, as well as to change the “customer experience” of traditional ones, so that a better fit develops between the needs and expectations of students and what each institution can deliver. Beyond this, well planned digital transitions in universities could become an instrument for cost reduction, as well as a vehicle for enhancing the quality and pertinence of the education being offered. Ignoring all these potential gains risks the long term relevance and even the very existence of many institutions.

By 2020 a good number of universities had started to approach the urgent imperative to initiate a transition, and some were well advanced into it and already available as inspiration and models³. Around the world as well as in Latin America, a still relatively small but rapidly growing share of traditional universities had undertaken transformational digital transitions, sometimes on their own, often establishing partnerships with other universities or institutions.

Then the lock downs during the pandemic, between 2020 and 2022, forced most institutions to make serious inroads into on line education.

A plausible generalization would be to assert that the pandemic may have acted as a higher education reform accelerator. Many institutions were, overnight, confronted with the impact of digital technology in their main functions and even in their basic functioning as institutions, creating a sudden awareness about the imperative of a digital transition. Yet, as we can now realize after the lock downs are over, it was obviously not enough. Once the pandemic emergency passed, the vast majority of institutions went back to their traditional ways and structures: students confined to large classroom being lectured by a single instructor, students confined to learn from what a single institution has to offer, students assessed individually on the extent of what they can memorize as opposed to being assessed in teams about what they can actually do and create, professors organized and doing research in single disciplines with little regard for  cross and inter-disciplinary work, and so on and so forth⁴.

I believe that a closer look at what happened during this massive forced experiment in on line education during the pandemic can throw some light on the difficulties in the adoption of on line learning as major avenue for reform and modernization of higher education institutions, at least in Latin America.

A worldwide forced experiment

IESALC-UNESCO estimated that over 21 million university students and about 1.3 millions of university professors were directly affected by the suspension of regular (in person) education by the end of March, 2020⁵. Overnight, every higher education institution faced the alternative of moving all its activities on line (certainly teaching, but also research, public service and administration) or closing altogether for a period of time that was going to be long, even if the uncertainty about the nature and severity of the pandemic was high.

A key variable: early preparedness

The sudden and almost complete lock down created an immediate pressure on higher education institutions to transition towards on line education. This quickly served to reveal the very different level of preparedness in which different institutions found themselves. On one end of the spectrum, a relatively small number of universities had laid, over the years, the foundation for on line education, and, consequently, they had acquired experience, platforms and infrastructure capabilities to display in an unprecedented emergency such as the one created by the COVID-19, even if imperfectly and rushed by the circumstances. On the other end, a good number of universities were caught completely unprepared and had to shut down for months or a year if not permanently. In the middle of these polar opposites stood a considerable number of institutions that managed to respond in a relatively short period of time mobilizing emergency resources or even seeking assistance from others in a better position. The timely availability of online platforms for video conferencing at a low cost⁶ allowed this kind of partial but significant response in the case of many institutions with limited or no previous exposure to online instruction.

Such disparity in institutional preparedness had a direct impact on access to higher education. But preparedness was not only an issue on the institution`s side. Early on, university authorities realized that the material and human preconditions for online instructions were unevenly distributed across the student body and faculty, and took emergency measures to balance them⁷.

Supporting student’s access to the Internet

Yet, as far as I have been able to weight the evidence, and contrary to popular belief, student`s lack of access to Internet or devices was not the major constraint facing remote instruction. Even if there is little systematic information about this dimension for Latin American higher education students, a meaningful picture can be put together by gathering partial or proxy evidence. Thanks to the OECD Pisa test of 2018, some information regarding access to connectivity and use of digital devices is available for 15 years old. According to this highly reliable survey, applied to students in Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, México, Panamá, Dominican Republic and Uruguay, Internet connectivity at home hovered around 95 percent among students in the highest quartile, and still over 60 percent for students in the lowest income quartile, even before considering cell phone signal. 15-year-old student in these countries were found to use Internet for homework in a range between 77 and 93 percent, depending on their income quartile. Access to computer or tablets at home was in 2018 aligned with OECD averages in the case of Argentina, Chile, Uruguay and Costa Rica, even though in the rest of the countries included in the survey was between 45 and 62 percent. The argument can be made, then, that access to devices was very unlikely to have worsened for these very same students about 2 years later, once they entered higher education.

A comprehensive survey of Brazilian higher education students in June 2020⁸, well into the pandemic`s lock down, found that around 87 per cent of students that were offered online classes by the institutions they were enrolled in connected to those classes using laptops, desktops or tablets, while the rest managed to connect with their cell phones, which led to the report`s conclusion that the share of students excluded by connectivity or equipment constraints from access to education at the tertiary level was insignificant. This conclusion held for students of public and private institutions, and for students all across the socio-economic scale.

The Internet access gap, in balance, was more of an issue in some countries than others, yet even in those in the weakest position, still manageable for the majority of the student population.

Institutional capabilities to teach on line were the primary constraint

But there is little that can be done to deliver classes to students enrolled in universities or programs, no matter how well connected or equiped they are, if institutions are altogether closed or lacking capabilities for on line instruction over one, two or even three consecutive academic cycles. The same Brazilian study mentioned above found that while 99 percent of private institutions transitioned to online instruction in the first 3 months after the lockdown in early 2020, just 40 percent of public institutions did the same, leaving their students without options for continuing with their education.

Beyond Brazil, additional fragmentary but highly consistent evidence exist: A May 2020 survey of officials at more than 50 Latin American universities in 14 countries⁹ determined that 25 percent of them had not transitioned to any online instruction. Two months into the pandemic lockdown, 44 percent of Peruvian universities had not initiated any online instruction¹⁰. The crisis was just too much for institutions that were not at least minimally prepared in advance.

On line delivery is not necessarily competent remote instruction

The capacity for putting in place the basics for online instruction to happen was, however, only the very first step. From the start, higher education leaders realized that online delivery of otherwise traditional lectures, identical in all respects to what would have taken place in a classroom setting, was far from ideal, and even openly inadequate. The limited information available on this dimension suggests some stylized facts:

• No matter how much the need for new pedagogical approaches was felt by the university leadership, by mid 2020 most online university education consisted of traditional lectures streamed through one of the major conferencing platforms (in the Semesp survey, referred above, only about 10 percent of professors teaching online courses declared to be trying new teaching methods or approaches). This (limited) evidence points to a under-utilization of even the most simple variations on traditional lectures, which would be asynchronic instruction as opposed to live, synchronic lecturing. In the same survey, a substantial majority of professors declared to have received training during the pandemics. Most of it, however, had to do with the use of commercial conferencing software, while only 10 percent received training related to new pedagogical approaches.

  

• That being said, more than half of university instructors rated their on line teaching experience as good or excellent and exhibited a favorable attitude towards learning on line teaching tools and methods, a fact that is consistent with the results of a survey of university faculty with experience in on line instruction in Chile, Colombia, Argentina and Brazil right before the pandemic hit¹¹. This could be a harbinger of good news, since the alleged resistance of professors to adapt to the remote instruction model normally tops the list of the barriers to the implementation of on line courses.

• On the student side of the equation, more than half of students in the Brazilian survey disliked the online classes experience in different degrees. Issues like difficulties for concentrating, lack of motivation and perceived lack of qualifications in professors for adequate online teaching were often mentioned as reason for such dissatisfaction. Notoriously important in the case of private university students was the perception that the relatively lower quality education they were receiving on line did not justify the tuition payments at pre-pandemic levels. If confirmed, this partial evidence suggests that it is student dissatisfaction rather than the difficulty to align professorial practices what lies at the core of difficulties for the adoption of remote instruction at a massive scale.

The emergency surely did not afford any of the groups involved (administrators, professors or students) the ideal peace of mind to think about real pedagogical reforms, but the pandemic certainly brought the issue to the fore. The limitations of the most traditional -and almost universal-, chalk and talk teaching format, hardly a new topic amongst educators, seem to have been magnified in the on line format, so it was now vividly felt by both instructors and, specially, students.

Thus, a preliminary balance of the signals sent by the COVID-19’s-induced general lock down suggests:

• 0n line education can, if applied soundly, become a potent tool to serve higher education students with new and better contents. Yet that requires institutions that are prepared for it, and that takes time.

• For Latin America, broadband connectivity and access to digital devices is an issue requiring attention, but it does not seem to be the main constraint to the mainstreaming of on line higher education offerings.

• Neither is resistance from faculty. They seem to have welcomed with open arms the sudden and massive pandemic “experiment” they got involved in.

• The dominant constraints seems to reside in the inclination of students to accept on line instruction as a superior or even equivalent alternative to in person classes. This needs to be addressed as the foremost concern of any university reform project aimed at expanding on line instruction. Probably there are few options here, except heavy investments in the production of a new generation of on line courses which will surely be very different to the repackaging of traditional lectures through on line conferencing platforms, investments to be combined with priority attention given to the user experience in on line course offerings.

Promising paths forward

The dominant trend, as of 2024, in the direction of returning to the pre-lock down status in many institutions is a reason for concern. Lessons such as those outlined in the previous section could be soon forgotten. There are nevertheless some lines of action that more than a few institutions are traveling and can be effective accelerators towards the inevitable mainstreaming of on line instruction in the near future:

• An increase in cross-institution collaboration: the complexity of the challenges of digital transition has led to the pooling of resources among several groups of universities, aimed at creating a shared critical mass of digital resources at an accelerated pace. A recent review of university partnerships around the world found a strong upward trend, particularly regarding agreements to offer online programs that deliver degrees: 25 of these partnerships were found to have been established in 2010; by 2021 the yearly figure of new partnerships reached 367¹².   A case in point is the UK Institute of Coding, a consortium of 27 British universities in close contact with industry, that defines itself as “… a collaborative national consortium of industry, educators and outreach program providers that are working together to respond to the UK´s digital skills gap through the delivery of employer-led digital skills education”. Joining the courses of these institutions plus other non-traditional actors such as coding bootcamps, over 900,000 students have enhanced their digital skills. METARED, a consortium of digital technology managers at Ibero-American universities, supported by UNIVERSIA-Santander, has been taking significant steps to promote collaboration among universities precisely on issues related to digital transformation.

• Intensive utilization of the expanding volume of available open education resources: These are defined as high-quality teaching, learning and research materials that are free for people everywhere to use and repurpose¹³. The landmark offering of this type of material continues to be the MIT’s Open Course Ware initiative that, back in 2012, made available to the public, free of charge, instructional material for about 2,000 courses. Ever since, the availability or material online has multiplied at an exponential rate. The implications of this development for post-secondary institutions are manifold:

  • First, it opens the question of why I, as a person seeking an education or the acquisition of a skill should attend a particular university instead of finding online all the information and training I need (say, through a series of MIT courses)? The sole possibility of this question being formulated at a massive scale by so many students serves to emphasize the point that, now more than ever before, universities have to make the case for themselves. They need making sure that they add value in such a way that a clear answer -in their favor- can be given to such question.

  • On the positive side, the abundance of on line material create ample opportunities for each professor to dictate any course in any institution to enrich and strengthen their syllabus with new sources and state of the art supplementary materials embedded with the talent and effort of a plethora of researchers, teachers and intellectuals worldwide. The innovative work of EdTech companies in this area serves to highlight its potential: companies like Global Alumni and Griky are just two examples of suppliers that specialize in working with universities and their faculties to redefine the content of curricula and courses, so that they can use curated online resources in a structured and custom-made manner. Dozens of universities around the world are using these services, including a handful in Latin America. Yet the overwhelming majority remains oblivious to the risk and possibilities of these developments.

• In addition, top technology companies are developing specialized support for universities willing to make a digital transition, including cases such as Salesforce Education Cloud or Amazon (see Campus on a Cloud).

These trends lead directly to the need to advance organizational and management changes in institutions, some of which could be far from easy to navigate. And let’s not forget that internal organizational challenges often dwarf when compared to the implications of scaling up on line university offerings when it comes to the political and regulatory issues involved.

Thus, to the list of lessons learned, above, it is good to add that progress will probably be faster if done in good company. In addition, institutional networks and providers specialized in on line content development and setting up virtual campuses will probably be an interesting avenue worth exploring for many institutions.

In closing

On line education has the potential to become a major tool for social inclusion, reaching out to more students, particulary those in remote locations, previously hard to reach. And, as it was mention at the beginning of this note, with considerable economy of resources. This of course is hardly a new concept -it is the very foundation of distance education at the post-secondary level that has existed for decades-. Yet with current digital technology higher education can reach new heights in terms of coverage and quality.

Addressing the mainstreaming of on line education has become unavoidable for universities around the world, and also for Latin American institutions. The digital technological revolution made it so. The pandemic accelerated it, and it taught us a lot about it along the way. Let’s not forget what we learned.

1. Higher education has been one of the most important sectors of economic and social activity that has remained mostly immune to the effects of technological change throughout history. A university lecture today would be easily recognized as a typical university lecture one thousand years ago.

2. Yesner, Ruthbea. 2020. “The Future of Higher Education: Digital Transformation is Critical to Learner and Institution Success”. MA. An IDC-Salesforce White Paper.

3. Dunagan, Alana. 2017. “College Transformed: Five Institutions Leading the Charge in Innovation”. Christensen Institute.

4. Salmi, Jamil. 2019. “The Museum of 20^th Century Universities”. In: Davey, Todd et al. The Future of Universities Thoughtbook: 40 Perspectives on How Engaged and Entrepreneurial Universities Will Drive Growth and Shape Our Knowledge-Driven Future Until 2040. Amsterdam.

5. IESALC-UNESCO. 2020. COVID’19 y Educación Superior: De los Efectos Inmediatos al Día Despúes. Análisis de Impactos, Respuestas Políticas y Recomendaciones. Caracas.

6. Zoom was first released in 2013; Microsoft Teams became first available in 2019; Google Meet was made available free to the public in April 2020, as a response to the pandemic.

7. Vicentini, Isabel. 2020. La Educación Superior en Tiempos de COVIC’19: Aportes de la Segunda Reunión del Diálogo Virtual con Rectores de Universidades Líderes de América Latina. BID-UNIVERSIA. Washington, D.C.

8. SEMESP. 2020. Adocao de Aulas Remotas. Brasilia.

9. Hershberg, Eric, Alexandra Flinn-Palcic & Christopher Kambhu. 2020. “The Covid-10 Pandemic and Latin American Universities.” American University. Washington, D.C. Institutions in Argentina, Brazil, Colomiba, Costa Rica, Cuba, Ecador, El Salvador, Honduras, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela were included in this non-representative sample.

10. Figallo, Flavio, María Teresa González & Verioska Diestra. 2020. “Perú: Educación Superior en el Contexto de la Pandemia por el COVID’19.” ESAL. No. 8. Jul-Dec. 2020. P.20-28. Barranquilla.

11. METARED. 2020. UDigital 2020. Estudio de la Madurez Digital en Sistemas Universitarios Iberoamericanos. 2020. UNIVERSIA. Madrid.

12. Holon IQ.https://www.holoniq.com/notes/4-stategic-shifts-in-higher-education/ 2021. 4 Strategic Shifts in Higher Education.

13. EDUCAUSE. 2018. Horizon Report. Higher Education Edition. Louisville, CO.